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Bitcoin cycle desk

Every bitcoin cycle top and bottom,
on one rising line.

Thirteen years of month closes on a log scale, inside the trend channel bitcoin has never left. Four tops, four bottoms, and today — then nine tools behind the sign-in to ask what it means for this cycle.

Thirteen years, one uptrend

Month closes since 2013 · log scale

Real month closes, log scale. The dashed channel is the least-squares fit through every close, with its walls set by the widest the price has run either side of it. Red dots are cycle tops, green are cycle bottoms; the 2021 first top and the 2026 low are provisional — one is a double-top shoulder, the other a low that has not been confirmed as a cycle bottom.

What you get after signing in

Nine tools · one question each

1 Cycle chart Free

Where are we in the cycle?

The full log-scale history with every cycle top and bottom dated, and shading for the four market phases — accumulation, bull, distribution, bear.

2 Live BTC chart Premium

What is bitcoin doing right now?

Fifteen years of bitcoin priced live, on candles, bars or a line, at six timeframes. Volume with its own studies, and the indicators that have actually marked this market — the bull market support band, the 200-week average, Pi Cycle and the halving clock.

3 Cycle comparison Free

How does this cycle low compare?

The three completed bears aligned from their tops against this cycle, every line running top to bottom and stopping there — −54% on day 268 for this one, against the day 363–410 historical bottom window it beat by 95 days, and three price scenarios scored on which actually resolved.

4 Historic returns Free

What does this month usually do?

Monthly and quarterly returns as heatmaps, then re-counted by market regime — because the same month across all years and in one kind of year can be opposite reads — plus a forward quarter projection in dollars.

5 Red news days Free

What do red news days cost?

Every high-impact USD release, past and coming. What bitcoin actually did on the past ones, measured against a baseline of normal days, and a warning for the ones ahead.

6 Funding & positioning Free

What is the crowd paying to stay in?

What a leveraged position is paying to stay open, how crowded the book is right now, and what each end of the funding range has actually been worth — counted separately for every market regime.

7 Sentiment Free

Is fear worth buying?

The Fear & Greed index everyone quotes, scored: what each reading was actually followed by, split by regime. The same number on the dial has pointed opposite ways in a bear and an accumulation year.

8 Order book Premium

Where is the size sitting?

Live books from four exchanges, filtered to orders of a million dollars and up. Which walls are real — eaten by trades rather than quietly pulled — and what the balance of them says about the next five minutes and the next week, which are often not the same answer. Every call it makes is written down and graded against what happened.

9 Dominance Free

Is money rotating out of bitcoin?

Where the money is moving between coins: BTC and ETH dominance, the stablecoin share and TOTAL/2/3 today, a 30-day reading of whether bitcoin is taking share from the alts or giving it up, and how BTC, ETH and the alts have moved against each other.

69 Pattern Labs Premium

What does this pattern actually need?

Sixty-nine chart patterns, each its own lab and none of them a picture. Drag a slider and the chart rebuilds — the neckline moves, the target recalculates. Push a pattern until it stops qualifying and the readouts say so.

Plans

No card for the trial · cancel premium any time

Trial
Free
No card, no expiry
  • The cycle chart and the cycle comparison
  • Regime-split returns and the quarter projection
  • Red news days
  • Funding & positioning, and Fear & Greed by regime
  • Bitcoin dominance and altcoin rotation
  • The live BTC chart, the order book and Pattern Labs
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