CPI inflation
The single number that most reliably moves the rate path. A small miss on core CPI is routinely worth a multi-percent candle.
Bitcoin performance after CPI
CPI day is one of a handful of US releases that reliably move bitcoin. The red news days tool measures how far bitcoin actually moved on every high-impact USD release (CPI, FOMC, payrolls, GDP and PCE) against what a normal day looks like, and flags the ones coming up.
The releases that move bitcoin
FOMC rate decision
The decision, the statement and the press conference land within 90 minutes. Bitcoin reprices on the path implied for the next year, not on the number itself.
Employment report
Payrolls, unemployment and hourly earnings at 08:30 ET together. Thin liquidity plus three surprises at once is the classic wick generator.
GDP and PCE
Growth and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Slower to move price than CPI, but a core PCE surprise still shifts the rate path.
How bitcoin's move on CPI day is measured
For every red USD release day, the tool records two things: the range (high minus low, as a share of the open), which is how violent the day was, and the move (close against open), which is where it ended.
Each day is then compared with its own baseline, the typical range of the quiet weekdays before it, so a CPI print in a volatile month is not credited with the month's volatility. Results are grouped by release type, so CPI can be read on its own.
See the numbers
This page explains the question. The tool behind it has the data: live readings, the full history, and every number re-counted by market regime.
Frequently asked questions
Does bitcoin go up or down after CPI?
Either: the direction depends on how the number lands against expectations, and on what the market had already priced. What is consistent is the size. Inflation is the number that most reliably moves the expected path of interest rates, and bitcoin trades as a rate-sensitive risk asset.
What time is CPI released?
US CPI is published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics at 08:30 Eastern Time, usually in the second week of the month. Bitcoin trades through it around the clock, so the reaction lands in the daily candle in full.
Which economic releases move bitcoin the most?
The FOMC rate decision, CPI, the employment report (payrolls, unemployment and hourly earnings at once) and GDP/PCE. The tool measures each type separately.
How is a "normal day" defined?
For each release day, the median daily range of the weekdays before it that were not themselves red news days. Leaving out other red days keeps them from flattening the very effect being measured; leaving out weekends keeps quiet Sundays from inflating it.