Accumulation
After a cycle bottom. Price stops falling and ranges sideways while patient buyers absorb supply; usually the best risk/reward of the cycle.
Bitcoin cycle chart
Bitcoin has moved in cycles of roughly four years: a run to a new high, a bear market that takes most of it back, a quiet base, and the next run. The cycle chart puts every month close on one log-scale line, with each top and bottom dated and every stretch filed under one of four phases.
How the bitcoin cycle works
Plotted on a log scale, bitcoin's whole history sits inside one rising channel. The cycle tops have pressed against its ceiling and the cycle bottoms have sat on its floor, and each run has been smaller, in percentage terms, than the one before it.
The cycle chart dates every top and bottom at the exact daily print, not the month close, and shades the history by phase, so the shape of each cycle can be compared with the others at a glance.
The four market phases
Bull
The markup years. Higher highs and higher lows, and up months that run much harder than the down months.
Distribution
The topping stretch. Price chops near the highs while early buyers sell into strength.
Bear
After a cycle top. Lower highs, lower lows, and rallies that get sold.
See the numbers
This page explains the question. The tool behind it has the data: live readings, the full history, and every number re-counted by market regime.
Frequently asked questions
How long is a bitcoin cycle?
About four years, measured from one cycle top to the next. The spacing has been remarkably steady across every cycle so far, which is why the four-year rhythm is the starting point for most cycle analysis.
What are the four phases of a bitcoin cycle?
Accumulation after a bottom, a bull market, a distribution phase near the top, and a bear market after it. Each has behaved differently enough that the desk files every day of the history under one of them.
Where is bitcoin in the cycle now?
This cycle topped at $126,296 and fell −54% to its low so far. The cycle chart on the desk shows where today sits against every previous cycle, and which phase the market is in.
Why is the chart on a log scale?
On a linear scale the move from $100 to $1,000 is invisible next to the move from $60,000 to $120,000, though both are the same tenfold gain. A log scale draws equal percentage moves at equal heights, which is the only way the whole history fits on one chart and still says something about each cycle.