200-week moving average
Roughly four years of weekly closes, one cycle. Bear market lows have tended to form near it.
Bitcoin cycle bottom indicators
A bitcoin cycle bottom is the low of a bear market, the point the next cycle grows from. Bottoms are only confirmed in hindsight, but timing and a few indicators have narrowed down where they form.
The bottom window
Bitcoin's bear markets have been more consistent in time than in depth. The completed ones bottomed between day 363 and day 410 after their tops. The desk draws that span as the bottom window on every bear-market chart.
Bitcoin cycle bottom indicators
Mayer Multiple below 1
Price under its own 200-day average. A reading below 1 has marked every accumulation zone in bitcoin's history.
Realised profit/loss
When coins moving on-chain are, on balance, being sold at a loss, sellers are capitulating.
Extreme Fear
The Fear & Greed index sits in Extreme Fear near bottoms, but it also sits there for months on the way down. What it has been worth depends on the regime.
Negative funding
When shorts pay longs to hold the perpetual, the crowd is leaning bearish, which has tended to happen near lows rather than highs.
See the numbers
This page explains the question. The tool behind it has the data: live readings, the full history, and every number re-counted by market regime.
Frequently asked questions
How long after the top does bitcoin bottom?
The completed bear markets bottomed between 363 and 410 days after their cycle tops, about a year.
Has bitcoin bottomed in 2026?
This cycle's low so far is −54% from the top. It is marked as a provisional low, not a confirmed cycle bottom: a bottom is only dated once the market has held above it.
What is the 200-week moving average?
The average weekly close over roughly four years, about one full cycle. Bear markets have tended to find their floor around it, which is why it is one of the readings the desk tracks.