Every bear, aligned
Each completed bear market drawn from its top to its bottom, with this cycle over them.
Bitcoin cycle comparison: 2018 vs 2022 vs 2026
Every bitcoin bear market so far has started at a cycle top and ended at a bottom about a year later. The cycle comparison lines them up from their tops, so the depth and the length of each one can be read against the others, and against this cycle.
Why compare bear markets from the top
A bear market is two numbers: how far it fell and how long it took. Lining every bear up from its own top, with days on one axis and drawdown on the other, puts those two numbers side by side for every cycle at once, and shows how this one is tracking against them.
Two patterns stand out. Drawdowns have shrunk every cycle, which is why a straight repeat of the last bear was never the most likely path. And timing has been tighter than depth: the completed bears bottomed close together, measured from their tops: between day 363 and day 410, about 7 weeks apart.
Comparing cycles frames the range of outcomes; it does not forecast one. The tool on the desk adds price scenarios measured from the top and scores them on which one actually resolved.
What the tool shows
The bottom window
The span of days in which every completed bear has bottomed, drawn across the chart.
Scenarios, scored
Price scenarios measured from the top, kept on the chart and marked by whether they happened.
See the numbers
This page explains the question. The tool behind it has the data: live readings, the full history, and every number re-counted by market regime.
Frequently asked questions
How long do bitcoin bear markets last?
From the cycle top to the cycle bottom, the completed bears took between 363 and 410 days, about a year. The desk draws that span as the bottom window.
Are bitcoin bear markets getting shallower?
Yes. Each completed bear has drawn down less than the one before it. A larger, more liquid market with more long-term holders takes more selling to move by the same percentage. It is a trend, not a law.
How does the 2026 bear market compare?
This cycle fell −54% from its top to its low so far, on day 268, shallower than any completed bear and earlier than the 363–410-day window they bottomed in. The low is provisional until the market confirms it.