Tradeloo
Bitcoin tools built for everyone
A bitcoin cycle top is the high of a bull market, the price the following bear market is measured from. No single indicator calls it on the day, but a handful have a long record of marking the stretch where tops form.
The 111-day moving average against twice the 350-day moving average. Their crosses landed within days of the 2013 and 2017 tops and the April 2021 first top. It did not cross at the November 2021 top, and never crossed near the October 2025 one.
Price divided by its 200-day moving average. Readings above about 2.4 have marked every blow-off.
The 20-week simple and 21-week exponential moving averages, drawn as one band. It has been the floor of every bull leg, so a weekly close lost below it after a new high is the classic first sign the top is in.
Tops are rarely a single spike. The months around them have been a distribution phase: price chopping near the highs while early buyers sell into strength.
Crowded longs pay high funding, and the Fear & Greed index reads Extreme Greed. Both say the trade is crowded; neither says when it ends.
The live chart on the desk draws every one of these, so their current state can be checked directly.
This page explains the question. The tool behind it has the data: live readings, the full history, and every number re-counted by market regime.
It flagged the 2013 and 2017 tops and the April 2021 first top within days. It did not cross at the November 2021 top, and it never crossed near the October 2025 one. It is one input, not a verdict.
Roughly three years, measured from cycle bottom to cycle top. The desk dates every top and bottom so the runs can be compared directly.
In percentage terms, yes. Each run from bottom to top has multiplied the price by less than the one before it, the same diminishing-returns pattern the bear markets show on the way down.