Extreme Fear
Panic. Usually deep in a drawdown or right after a sharp break.
Bitcoin Fear & Greed historical analysis
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index condenses market mood into one number from 0 to 100. Every crypto site shows today's reading on a dial. The question a trader actually has is what each reading has been worth afterwards, and the answer has depended on what kind of market it printed in.
The five bands
Fear
Caution. Common through bear markets and early accumulation.
Neutral
No strong lean either way.
Greed
Confidence. The usual state of a bull market.
Extreme Greed
Euphoria. Crowded, and often late in a run.
The bands are the publisher's own labels, not cuts of ours, so a reading is always classified the way the dial shows it.
How the historical analysis works
The tool takes every daily reading since 2018 and asks what bitcoin did next: the return 7, 30, 90 and 365 days later. It groups those outcomes by band, and then does it again for each market regime: bear, accumulation, bull and distribution.
That second step is the point. "Buy extreme fear" is a claim about all days at once, and all days at once is the wrong sample: a fearful day in a bear year and a fearful day in an accumulation year come from different distributions. The tool prints the sample size beside every result, because some of them are thin.
See the numbers
This page explains the question. The tool behind it has the data: live readings, the full history, and every number re-counted by market regime.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index?
A daily score from 0 (Extreme Fear) to 100 (Extreme Greed) published by alternative.me since February 2018. It blends volatility, momentum and volume, social media, dominance and search trends into one reading, and labels it with one of five bands.
Is Extreme Fear a good time to buy bitcoin?
Not unconditionally. The same Extreme Fear reading has been followed by opposite outcomes in a bear year and in an accumulation year: in a bear market fear can stay extreme for months while price keeps falling. That is why the tool scores every band separately for each market regime.
Does Extreme Greed mean the top is in?
Greed readings cluster in bull markets, which run for a long time. Extreme Greed says the trade is crowded, not that it is over.
How often is the index updated?
Once a day. The desk shows today's reading beside its history.