Monthly heatmap
Every month since 2013, coloured by the size and sign of the move.
Bitcoin monthly returns
Every month has a reputation: "Uptober", a weak September, a strong November. The monthly returns tool shows bitcoin's return for every month since 2013 as a heatmap, and then asks the question those reputations skip: in what kind of year?
Why the calendar month is the wrong question
Most "best month for bitcoin" lists average every year together. That mixes bull years, when nearly every month goes up, with bear years, when most go down, and the result describes neither.
The tool keeps the unconditional view as a baseline and then splits it: each calendar year is filed under the regime a trader would have called it at the time, and every month is re-counted within each regime. Medians sit beside averages, and the month still running is labelled and held out of the statistics.
What the tool shows
Quarterly heatmap
The same for quarters, where single-month noise washes out.
Split by regime
Every month re-counted for bull, bear, accumulation and distribution years.
Quarter projection
A forward projection for the current quarter, in dollars.
See the numbers
This page explains the question. The tool behind it has the data: live readings, the full history, and every number re-counted by market regime.
Frequently asked questions
What is the best month for bitcoin historically?
It depends on how you count. Averages are dragged a long way by a single extreme year, so the tool shows the median beside the average, and the answer changes again once the years are split by market regime.
Is September a bad month for bitcoin?
September has a weak reputation, but whether it repeats has depended far more on the regime of the year than on the month itself. A bull-year September and a bear-year September are different trades.
Is "Uptober" real for bitcoin?
October has a strong reputation, and the same caveat applies: in a bear year the month has not saved the trend. The tool counts each month separately for bull, bear, accumulation and distribution years.
Where do the numbers come from?
Month-close to month-close total returns for BTC, matching the monthly returns table published on coinglass.com. The current year is recomputed from exchange closes.